Reasons why we will get iPhone 5 in September

Apple is predicted to release iPhone 5 in September instead of the usual June period. Here are the reasons:

  • iPhone 5 will still be released this year. There is no way Apple will delay it till next year. Competition is tough. The new Samsung Galaxy S II is benchmarked to be twice as fast as last year’s device. By end of the year, most Android phones are expected to upgrade to be on par with Galaxy S II. Apple needs a phone with iPad 2’s CPU prowess in order to be attractive for the all important year end shopping period.
  • iPhone is typically announced at WWDC in June. WWDC this year however is stated to focus on software. Many do not predict a new iPhone launch during WWDC.
  • Judging from past pattern, Apple will release a new major version of iOS 5 together with new iPhone. Apple will reveal details of iOS 5 only at WWDC in June. In the past, new major iOS is previewed around Mar-Apr for a June release. It typically requires 2-3 months in order for developers to get ready for a major iOS release. Thus we are looking at September for a more realistic iOS 5 release date.
  • There is confirmation from Apple suppliers that there is no order for iPhone 5 production yet. If iPhone 5 were to release in June, production at least the preparation should start about now.
  • Verizon CDMA iPhone 4 is released only in February, which is too close to June for a refresh. We expect CDMA iPhone 4 to release in other CDMA markets in India and China before iPhone 5’s release. Thus it makes no sense for iPhone to refresh in June.
  • Apple is reported to release white iPhone 4 by end Apr. Again this is too close to June. Apple would have kill the white iPhone if new refresh is coming in June.
  • For iPhone 4, Apple takes 2-3 months for it to release to major international markets. Judging by iPad 2’s quick international launches in major markets, Apple apparently has mastered the supply chain magic. Thus a September launch of iPhone 5 is ok now as Apple can make it available in major international markets for the year end festive season.
  • September is typically the month where Apple launches new iPod models. iPod models except for iPod touch is matured and there is little excitements for new models to warrant a press event. It’s a natural fit to announce iPhone along side new iPod models.